Exploring Scenario Development in Maritime Spatial Planning: Insights from the 8th MSP Planners’ Forum

MSP Planners’ Forum is a practical and informal dissemination and collaboration platform supporting ongoing national and regional maritime spatial planning processes and implementation of MSP policy for national-level MSP practitioners. The 8th MSP Planners’ Forum meeting was held online on 26th March 2026, this time focusing on scenario development.

The usual VASAB & HELCOM updates and the tour-de-table of the Baltic Sea Region countries were followed by 3 presentations covering different perspectives on scenarios in MSP:

• Justus Joenaalto from Capful presented Finland’s experience with exploratory scenario development as a foresight tool to address uncertainty and strengthen long-term resilience, particularly in the context of maritime security;
• Laura Gusatu from University of Groningen introduced a participatory approach to developing offshore energy scenarios, combining global narratives with regional and local insights to analyse cross-sector interactions and spatial trade-offs;
• Juul Kusters from University of Groningen focused on governance scenarios in the Greater North Sea Basin within the NESB project, highlighting how co-created approaches can support transboundary cooperation and address institutional and political challenges in MSP.

The discussion part of the meeting brought participants into interactive breakout room workshop facilitated by the NESB project team – Juul Kusters (University of Groningen), Jakub Turski (Maritime Institute of Maritime University in Gdynia) and Margarita Vološina (VASAB Secretariat). Participants explored the role of scenarios in governance and decision-making, as well as factors influencing transboundary collaboration. It was widely agreed that scenarios are valuable tools for building shared understanding and navigating complex uncertainties. At the same time, their application requires significant time, resources, and clear communication to avoid misunderstandings, particularly around terminology and expectations.

Discussions on transboundary cooperation highlighted that willingness to collaborate depends not only on shared objectives but also on trust, simplicity, and the ability to reduce complexity and costs. Strong leadership, political commitment, and existing cooperation platforms were identified as key enablers, while limited resources and competing national priorities remain persistent challenges. Overall, the exchange underscored that while scenario development holds significant potential for strengthening MSP processes, its effectiveness depends on careful design, adequate resources, and a strong foundation of collaboration across sectors and borders.

MSP Planners’ Forum meetings are held twice a year; each focused on a topic chosen by the participants. During MSP Planners’ Forum meetings participants discuss pressing MSP issues, knowledge gaps and future MSP project needs. All meeting Notes, including this one, are available here. 

MSP Planners’ Forum is facilitated by VASAB Secretariat within the EUSBSR Policy Area Spatial Planning.